The Russia-Azerbaijan Rift

Abstract

The falling-out between Baku and Moscow in the summer of 2025 was arguably the most significant break in bilateral relations since the end of the Soviet Union. The current spiral of events leaves an unsolvable puzzle, as questions seem to outnumber potential answers. While some media outlets speculate about worstcase scenarios, including another war of annexation by Russia against Azerbaijan, others pay little heed to Russia’s bold reactions and argue that Russia-Azerbaijan relations have not been irreversibly damaged. The objective of this paper is to examine, through the lens of these rich and intense events, how Baku maintains its partisan regime by capitalizing on regional power shifts.