The Trans-Caspian Pipeline: Turkmenistan’s Path to EU Energy Security and Strategic Diversification

Abstract

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has intensified the European Union’s (EU) need to diversify its energy sources, positioning Turkmenistan as a potential key supplier. With the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves, Turkmenistan could play a pivotal role in global energy markets. However, governance challenges, an overreliance on China for gas exports, and infrastructural deficiencies hinder this potential. This study explores the strategic importance of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP), which could connect Turkmenistan’s reserves to the EU’s Southern Gas Corridor, enhancing Europe’s energy security. The methodology involves a qualitative analysis of secondary data, including policy documents, academic literature, and geopolitical reports, to evaluate the challenges and opportunities associated with the TCP. The research highlights significant internal and external challenges, including geopolitical resistance from Russia and Iran, and economic and technical barriers to the pipeline’s implementation. Despite these obstacles, regional collaborations, such as the 2021 Azerbaijan-Turkmenistan Memorandum of Understanding, indicate pathways forward. The analysis concludes that sustained investments, strong political will, and strategic international partnerships are essential for unlocking Turkmenistan’s energy potential and addressing the EU’s energy diversification goals.