http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12323/5726 Professor, Doctor of Science, Vice Rector for Academic Affairs 2026-04-04T03:29:52Z http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12323/8134 Title: Application of the Z-Information-Based Scenarios for Energy Transition Policy Development Authors: Nuriyev, Mahammad; Nuriyev, Aziz; Mammadov, Jeyhun Abstract: The development of an energy transition policy that ensures a rational combination of the requirements of sustainable development and the country’s priorities is a key factor determining the success of its development. The complexity and importance of this task increase in the case of countries in which oil and natural gas export revenues play a key role in the formation of the budget and development of the country. In this paper, the solution to this problem is studied using the example of Azerbaijan. Considering that the task requires addressing the uncertainty and limitations of available information and statistical data, we used an approach based on the use of fuzzy scenarios and expert information. Scenarios have been described using linguistic variables and the formalism of Z-numbers. Z-numbers allow us to simultaneously formalize uncertainty and reliability in the information. Solving the problem involves integrating approximate methods of Z-reasoning and multi-criteria decision-making. This approach considers economic, social, environmental, and technological criteria and allows for the generation, analysis, and evaluation of transition scenarios. The results obtained demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology for constructing energy transition scenarios for countries producing and exporting oil and gas. The solution suggests a moderate increase in natural gas and hydropower production, along with a significant rise in solar and wind energy production. The results highlight the effectiveness of a rational combination of traditional and renewable energy sources during the transition period. The rule base developed in this article can be adapted to account for the priorities and constraints of a specific oil- and gas-producing and -exporting country, and the fuzzy scenarios approach can be successfully applied to address the transition challenge. 2025-03-14T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12323/7057 Title: Renewable Energy Transition Task Solution for the Oil Countries Using Scenario-Driven Fuzzy Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Models: The Case of Azerbaijan Authors: Nuriyev, Mahammad; Nuriyev, Aziz; Mammadov, Jeyhun Abstract: The renewable energy transition of oil- and gas-producing countries has specific peculiarities due to the ambivalent position of these countries in the global energy market, both as producers and consumers of energy resources. This task becomes even more challenging when the share of oil and gas in the country’s GDP is very high. These circumstances pose serious challenges for longterm energy policy development and require compromising decisions to better align the existing and newly created energy policies of the country. The scale, scope, and pace of changes in the transition process must be well balanced, considering the increasing pressure of economic and environmental factors. The objective of this paper is to develop models that allow the selection of the most appropriate scenario for renewable energy transition in an oil- and gas-producing country. The distinguishing feature of the proposed model is that alternatives in the decision matrix are presented as scenarios, composed of a set of energy resources and the level of their use. Linguistic descriptions of the alternative scenarios are formalized in the form of fuzzy statements. For the problem solution, four different Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods were used: the fuzzy simple additive weighting (F-SAW) method, the distance-based fuzzy TOPSIS method (Technique of Order Preference Similarity to the Ideal Solution), the ratio-analysis-based fuzzy MOORA method (Multi- Objective Optimization Model Based on the Ratio Analysis), and the fuzzy multi-criteria optimization and compromise solution method VIKOR (Serbian: VIekriterijumsko Kompromisno Rangiranje). This approach is illustrated using the example of the energy sector of Azerbaijan. The recommended solution for the country involves increasing natural gas (NG) moderately, maintaining hydro, and increasing solar notably and wind moderately. 2023-12-14T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12323/6029 Title: Selection of Renewables for Economic Regions with Diverse Conditions: The Case of Azerbaijan Authors: Nuriyev, Mahammad; Mammadov, Jeyhun; Nuriyev, Aziz; Mammadov, Joshgun Abstract: The objective of this paper is to study the specifics of the selection of renewables for regions of Azerbaijan with diverse conditions. Information is obtained through the analysis of the regions’ conditions and experts’ opinions. Analysis reveals that geographical position, diversity of natural resources, and a variety of other factors of the five economic regions of the country require subdivision of these regions in the selection of renewables. Given that the selection of renewables is a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) task under a high degree of uncertainty, Z-number-based models have been developed, and Z-extension of the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method has been used. Solutions have been derived based on direct calculations with Z-numbers. In this paper, results obtained for two regions are presented. In the case of one region, for the first part (mountains and foothill) of the Karabakh economic region, renewables are ranked as hydro, solar, and wind. For the second part (plain), the ranking is as follows: solar, hydro, and wind. For the Guba-Khachmaz economic region, the rankings of renewables for parts of the region are also different: the wind is preferable for the seaside, and solar is more appropriate for the foothills. Results show that in the case of uneven distribution of renewables and significant differences in factors influencing decision-making, it is necessary to subdivide economic regions and use different models for the selection of renewables 2022-10-02T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12323/5782 Title: An Integrated Approach for Renewable Energy Resource and Plant Location Selection Authors: Nuriyev, Mahammad Abstract: Renewable energy resources ranking, and power plant location selection are multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problems. These problems can be solved as two-phase decision-making tasks separately and sequentially or, in a unified form, as a single-step task. In this paper, we are studying the efficiency and applicability of the unified approach based on fuzzy and Z-information, and TOPSIS technique. Alternatives for the single-step approach are generated based on renewables available in the country and potential geographical locations for these resources. Considering the importance of weights in MCDM and the multiplicity of approaches to criteria weighting, subjective, objective, AHP-based, and combination of the subjective and objective weights are used for decision matrix weighting. Comparative analysis of the solutions, based on various weights, allows making a reliable solution. The results of the study and problem solution confirm the efficiency and applicability of the combined approach. The advantage of the unified single step solution is that this approach, in addition to the solution of the main task, provides to decision-maker additional information about preferable next best renewable and location option as well. 2021-01-01T00:00:00Z