Azerbaijani–Russian Relations: Transactional Diplomacy in Action

Abstract

By applying transactionalism—conceptualized as a series of iterative quid pro quo arrangements—to relations between Azerbaijan and Russia in the context of the Second Karabakh War, this article shows how the contingent interactions that characterize the Azerbaijani–Russian relationship produce unexpected outcomes. The war in Karabakh in the fall of 2020 is seen as a product of such transactional exchange: Russia tacitly supported Azerbaijan’s right to regain territories it lost in the early 1990s in exchange for Baku’s approval of Russia’s deployment of its peacekeeping (PK) mission to Karabakh. Russia’s military presence in what is internationally recognized as Azerbaijan’s sovereign territory provides the Kremlin with a toolbox of policy leverage, including the status issue, keeping Armenian troops in or out, continued arms sales to Armenia, and the PK mission’s mandate. These tools allow the Kremlin to maintain a constant sense of insecurity in both Armenia and Azerbaijan and to promote Russia’s ambition to dominate the region.