Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12323/4496
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dc.contributor.authorFernandes, Nuno-
dc.date.accessioned2020-06-29T10:07:11Z-
dc.date.available2020-06-29T10:07:11Z-
dc.date.issued2020-04-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12323/4496-
dc.description.abstracthis report discusses the economic impact of the Coronavirus/COVID-19 crisis across industries, and countries. It also provides estimates of the potential global economic costs of COVID-19, and the GDP growth of different countries. The current draft includes estimates for 30 countries, under different scenarios. The report shows the economic effects of outbreak are currently being underestimated, due to over-reliance on historical comparisons with SARS, or the 2008/2009 financial crisis. At the date of this report, the duration of the lockdown, as well as how the recovery will take place is still unknown. That is why several scenarios are used. In a mild scenario, GDP growth would take a hit, ranging from 3-6% depending on the country. As a result, in the sample of 30 countries covered, we would see a median decline in GDP in 2020 of -2.8%. In other scenarios, GDP can fall more than 10%, and in some countries, more than 15%. Service-oriented economies will be particularly negatively affected, and have more jobs at risk. Countries like Greece, Portugal, and Spain that are more reliant on tourism (more than 15% of GDP) will be more affected by this crisis. This current crisis is generating spillover effects throughout supply chains. Therefore, countries highly dependent on foreign trade are more negatively affected. The results suggest that on average, each additional month of crisis costs 2.5-3% of global GDP.en_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.relation.ispartofseriesSSRN Working Papers;-
dc.subjectCOVID-19en_US
dc.subjecteconomic crisisen_US
dc.subjectfinancial crisisen_US
dc.subjectrecessionen_US
dc.subjectfinancial impac ten_US
dc.titleEconomic Effects of Coronavirus Outbreak (COVID-19) on the World Economyen_US
dc.typeWorking Paperen_US
Appears in Collections:SSRN Working Papers

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