European Public Opinion on Turkey’s EU Accession

Abstract

“What do Europeans think of EU’s enlargement to Turkey and why?” is the main question that this research tries to deal with by making arguments, conducting analyses, providing proofs, and developing predictions. The study evaluates enlargement more than a technical procedure that takes public opinion into account as well. According to the findings of the research, public support for Turkey’s accession to the EU is not only low, but also in decline. With some exceptions, the ‘new’ (EU-28) are generally more favorable towards Turkey’s accession while the ‘old’ (EU-15) oppose it.1 EU countries with a large Turkish population are generally against to welcome Turkey in EU. 2 Countries defending ‘The European Project’ of deep political integration and a federal state pose a negative attitude on Turkey’s accession than who backs economic union and mutual benefits. The study also finds the extreme-right and nationalist parties standing against Turkey’s membership contrary to Liberals, Greens and the European United Left who usually are not so negative regarding it. The study claims that Europeans’ attitudes towards Turkey’s accession to the European Union (EU) are largely shaped under the influence of perceived, misperceived, really existing or highly predicted factors in value-based, materialistic or moral character. In other words, European public opinion on Turkey’s membership to the EU is not only about the misperceptions, but also true perceptions or rational predictions and calculations. In addition to the fulfillment of official membership requirements, Turkey-, EU-, country- and individual-specific factors also effect Europeans opinion on Turky’s accession to the EU. For most Europeans, political and social concerns are not only remarkable but also rather persistent. So as conomic disadvantages turns into advantages or vice versa as time goes on. However, this hypothsis hardly fits social and sometimes political matters. The study also answers if European citizens or elites form opposition toward Turkey’s EU membership. It describes public opinion in any EU member state over Turkey’s accession to the EU as influenced by the electoral market where the electorate and party elites are in a ‘give-take’ relationship, a never-ended periodical process. According to the study, in some European countries, national governments and ideologies, the (‘top’), insistently create decline in citizens (’down’) support to Turkey’s accession whereas in other European countries political elites act according to the citizens will and tend to be more attractive for the voters or party members. Nevertheless, it concludes that Turkey’s EU membership is an elitist task that can be realized if the geopolitical environment requires and elites present it more desirable to the citizens. Due to the current internal, regional and international instability concerns of EU and Turkey, the accession sounds urgent, advantageous for them, but also rather costly in the evaluations of the study.